An In-Depth Analysis of Iran and its Possible Paths
By Iñaki Méndez
24/09/2025
This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the Islamic Republic of Iran, examining its complex political structure, demographic composition, and possible avenues for political change. The analysis suggests that any significant change in Iran will require an alliance between various political actors capable of overcoming historical divisions. Negotiated reform is presented as the most viable option to avoid a major conflict, although the antagonistic positions between different groups (especially regarding the form of the state and minority rights) make such an alliance extremely difficult to achieve.
Iñaki Mendez holds a Law degree from Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea – University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU). He specializes in jihadist terrorism in Southeast Asia and conflicts in the MENA region, and regularly collaborates with the International Observatory for Terrorism Studies (OIET) and various online media outlets.
The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the CGI or its contributors. The designations employed in this publication and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the CGI concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.
